11/9/2015 0:00:00
Tropical Storm Kate forms over the Bahamas, but is forecasted to stay to the east. Full details below:
…Kate strengthens some more near the central Bahamas…
Summary of 1000 am EST…1500 UTC…information
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Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* central Bahamas
* northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
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at 1000 am EST (1500 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was
located near latitude 24.5 north, longitude 75.3 west. Kate is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Kate is forecast to pass near or over portions of the central
Bahamas during the next few hours and near or over portions
of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
Hazards affecting land
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wind: tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the central Bahamas for the next few hours and will
spread over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon.
Rainfall: Kate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over the Bahamas through tonight.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Kate has strengthened a little. The advisory intensity of 40
kt is based on peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt, and SFMR
observations of 40-42 kt. Kate is a very small tropical cyclone,
with its associated central dense overcast extending no more than
about 40 N mi from the center.
Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Kate is moving
northwestward at about 13 kt, steered between a subtropical high
pressure system over the central Atlantic and a trough over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A northward turn is forecast to occur
tonight when the storm is near the northwestern Bahamas. After
that time, an acceleration to the northeast is expected when the
cyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official NHC track forecast is
nudged to the right of the previous one at the 36- and 48-h forecast
times, to come into better agreement with the consensus aids.
Kate is likely to strengthen some more during the next day or so
while it remains in a low- to moderate-shear environment and over
warm water. The official intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one, but is near the low end of the guidance envelope.
All of the models show Kate becoming absorbed by a much larger
extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days.
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